For most of the past decade, OPEC decisions have been the primary signal for oil price directions. In contrast, OPEC's influence has shifted to the medium term, and in times of real pressure on supplies, pricing power returns to the producers. This rule is now being tested, though not completely overturned. China has today become the main driver of short-term global oil price indicators, as its non-transparent import patterns, refining margins, and strategic storage policies are playing an increasingly important role in shaping marginal demand and price discovery mechanisms in the near term. What has actually changed is the source of short-term signals that
