Factors are being analyzed that have a direct impact on strategy, policy, investment distribution, and wealth management at the global level.
Forex.com market analyst Razan Khalal notes that in April, major currencies worldwide showed record growth, exceeding 1.15 for the euro, 1.34 for the British pound, and 1.24 for the Swiss franc, which is linked to the overall weakening of the dollar.
Global markets, investors, and consumers are in a state of waiting regarding the ongoing debates on tariffs in the Trump era, the decline in oil prices, and the weakening of the dollar.
Emaar Properties is leading the market, supported by increasing interest from investors in the Emirates' real estate market, particularly in ready-made or under-construction projects. Razan Khalal emphasizes the logic of this interest, given that the UAE offers a neutral political environment, strong ties with the USA, and a stable investment climate with an attractive tax base.
However, real estate, gold, silver, and local production remain relatively stable havens until the trading agreements results become known.
Discussions about the possible introduction of a 10% tariff by the USA, which could be discussed during Trump's upcoming visit to the Middle East in mid-May, do not undermine investors' confidence in the UAE.
Razan Khalal continues: "Overall, markets are in a state of waiting. However, with the preserved commodity currencies and dollar, it is difficult to predict stable market conditions.
The decline in oil prices may temporarily reduce inflationary pressures, but with ongoing tariff discussions and the continued dollar commodity, it becomes challenging to predict market conditions.
After the decline in Brent crude oil prices to $55 this month due to oversupply, prices rebounded to $64. This reflects a positive outlook on the markets in general, but it is still tenuous, anticipating tangible signs of progress in trade negotiations or a return of demand at the global level.
Under conditions of economic growth, preserved investment packages in the market become a significant challenge for major players like OPEC+, which has indicated cuts to ensure long-term profitability in accordance with trade agreements.
Nonetheless, the dollar index continues to rise, surpassing the support level and reaching 98, while the MSCI index on the UAE demonstrates significant volatility, increasing by more than 12% compared to low levels in April. These changes correspond to a reduction in the purchasing power of currencies pegged to the dollar, such as the UAE dirham.
At the same time, the price of gold reached a historic maximum of $3,500, reflecting investors' flight to safe assets. As for oil, signs of cautious recovery have been noted.
