A recent report by global real estate consultancy Knight Frank reveals expectations of delivering around 350,000 residential units in Dubai by 2030, representing a 55% increase in the current housing stock. The report, obtained by 'Emirates Today', indicates that according to announced projects, the market is set to receive about 70,000 units annually, more than double the delivery rate of 36,000 units per year seen in past years.Real estate experts told 'Emirates Today' that the Dubai real estate market is undergoing significant transformations, driven by continuous population growth, massive investments in infrastructure, and a new type of buyer. This enhances the market's ability to absorb new housing supply without a major impact on prices.They stated that new projects are managed according to well-studied plans, with a large portion sold off-plan, ensuring quick absorption of the supply, especially in the mid-tier and premium sectors aimed at end-users.They noted that any potential increase in supply might only lead to slight price corrections in mid-tier areas, while primary markets will maintain their stability, confirming that the Dubai real estate market is characterized by flexibility and adaptability to change, supporting the sector's sustainable growth.Delivery RatesIn detail, Knight Frank's Partner and Head of Research for the Middle East and North Africa, Faisel Durani, expects around 350,000 residential units to be delivered in Dubai in the next five years (2026-2030) based on registered projects, which will lead to a 55% increase in the emirate's total current housing stock.Durani said in a recent company report: 'The projects include those under construction and those registered but not yet implemented, amounting to about 70,000 units per year, a rate far exceeding the average of 36,000 units delivered annually over the past 20 years.'He explained that forecasts for 2024 indicated the delivery of 60,000 units, but only 50% were delivered on time, adding that this year has seen the delivery of about 46% of the total 61,922 units, or 28,624 units between January and September 2025.Durani confirmed that developers are responding to the capacity shortages of some contractors, with some starting to manage construction operations internally by establishing or expanding their in-house capabilities to better control timelines, costs, and quality.Durani continued: 'Assuming a more optimistic delivery rate of 70%, this would result in the delivery of around 331,000 units over the next five years (assuming 30% of the shortfall is carried over to the next year annually), or about 66,000 units per year between 2026 and 2030.'He said that the increase in announced projects and the resulting expansion in the supply of residential units could be a source of concern, as an increase in supply has been the cause of previous weak market cycles.Nevertheless, Durani confirmed that conditions appear different in Dubai at present, as the market fundamentals are stronger and more robust now in terms of the nature of actual buyers, which has been confirmed by accelerating population growth and decreasing real estate 'flipping' rates.'Healthy Competition'Harbour Real Estate's CEO, Mohamad Al-Wadi, confirmed that the talk of Dubai's ability to absorb or deliver 350,000 residential units by 2030 requires a more realistic reading, explaining that the number seems large theoretically, but the long experience in the sector confirms that a large part of the supply does not reach the market on time due to delays from some developers and intense competition for contracting and construction material companies.Al-Wadi also confirmed that assessing the size of the supply cannot be done without considering its quality, pointing out that the income bracket segment suffers from a significant shortage, which is a core part of Dubai's 2040 Urban Plan. He said that focusing on delivery volume without analyzing the product's quality leads to an incomplete reading of the scene.He considered the debate about possible price corrections in areas like Dubai Circle due to excessive supply as an unfounded discussion, noting that the area achieved the highest number of deals in the past two years, reflecting strong demand for it, especially as it serves the largest segment of middle-income society in the community.Al-Wadi clarified that in case of a slowdown in demand, the market does not witness a decline but enters a phase of 'healthy competition,' where developers start to enhance their marketing strategies locally, then expand to regional and global markets, increase broker commissions, and offer facilities to buyers such as payment plans, fee waivers, or rental income guarantees.He said that developers with strong brand names are not forced to enter this race, as the strength of the product is sufficient to create continuous demand.Population GrowthAl-Wadi explained that the most in-demand categories such as land, offices, and key plots are not affected by any potential slowdown due to limited supply and high demand, noting that talking about a 'crash' in the market is inaccurate and should be based on understanding the quality of the supply, not just its numbers.He added that population growth in Dubai plays a pivotal role in absorbing any new supply, as the emirate records one of the highest growth rates globally at 5.7% annually, with a projected population of 5.8 million by 2040.Al-Wadi confirmed that the current stage reflects a real and qualitative demand, as Dubai is attracting a wave of permanent residents from among entrepreneurs, creators, and skilled professionals, noting that more than 55% of new expatriates plan to buy property, especially with the continued decline in interest rates.Al-Wadi said that delivering 350,000 units might seem like a large number, but Dubai's growth is faster than the numbers, and the city is used to creating new demand that absorbs any additional supply, confirming that current indicators of population growth, massive investments, and new quality buyers paint a positive and clear picture of the real estate sector's future, and affirm the market's ability to continue its sustainable growth in the near and long term.Planned ProjectsBizzent's Founder and CEO, a specialized consultancy firm for the development and management of real estate projects in Dubai, Ismail Al-Hamadi, said that the projects recently launched in the market come according to well-studied plans, where the largest part is sold off-plan or during launch hours, which ensures that upon completion, they will be delivered directly to their owners, especially premium projects, most of which are expected to be delivered to end-users, which gives the market the ability to absorb the supply in the coming years.Al-Hamadi added that areas like Dubai Circle are considered high-demand areas, as they are targeted at the middle and limited-income segments, so focus was placed on launching projects there, expecting them not to witness significant pressure on supply.Al-Hamadi clarified: 'If that happens, the area and similar areas may witness slight price corrections, while primary markets like Palm Jumeirah and Downtown Dubai will not witness a decline or price corrections, as the supply there is limited and demand is high.'Al-Hamadi confirmed that any potential increase in supply might only lead to slight price corrections in mid-tier areas, while primary markets maintain their stability, pointing out that the Dubai real estate market is characterized by flexibility and adaptability to economic and financial changes, which supports the continuous growth of the real estate sector.Mid-Tier ProjectsAl-Hamadi mentioned that developers have already started to direct their attention to mid-tier projects, amidst the focus on luxury real estate over the past three years. This direction aligns with diverse financing policies to serve the middle class of buyers, who represent the largest segment of residents, while luxury projects have most of their clients as international buyers.Al-Hamadi said: 'For example, a unit off-plan was priced at 700,000 dirhams four years ago, today in the same area and off-plan its price is almost doubled, while the units less than a million dirhams, which are expected to be launched to serve the middle class, might be in new areas and might be subject to area modifications to ensure the developer's ability to balance construction costs with serving this segment.'Al-Hamadi confirmed that the Dubai real estate market is characterized by flexibility and adaptability to economic and financial changes, which supports the continuous growth of the real estate sector.Infrastructure InvestmentsHarbour Real Estate's CEO, Mohamad Al-Wadi, said that investing in infrastructure directly boosts demand, citing the project to develop the intersection of Dubai World Trade Centre and Street of Worth 1.3 billion dirhams to cut travel time in the trade center area from 12 minutes to 90 seconds, in addition to other projects worth 35 billion dirhams during the period (2027-2028), stressing that investing in infrastructure is the fastest way to pump liquidity and stimulate the economy. Dubai's real estate market is expected to receive around 70,000 residential units annually between 2026 and 2030. Knight Frank confirmed that the market has delivered around 46% of the total 61,900 residential units since the beginning of 2025. Real estate experts considered that any potential increase in supply might lead to slight price corrections in mid-tier areas, while primary markets maintain their stability.
