Many in Europe complain that their governments penalize initiative and risk-taking, while spending heavily on social welfare. All of this is welcome, but it's only half the story. However, the populists' and America's warnings have gone beyond the facts, as legal migration has peaked, and with the exception of the UK, illegal migration to Europe has halved since 2023. For the UK, France, and Germany, European economic integration is the most obvious source of growth. Nevertheless, the populists are on a collision course with the European Union, which will lead to the degradation of the single market and the destruction of growth. The failure of Elon Musk's 'Government Efficiency' project in the US shows how difficult it is to downsize the government well. Jordan Bardella wants to introduce a wealth tax in France and has opposed raising the retirement age. After being criticized for his promises of fantastical spending, Nigel Farage is now promising a more realistic budget for the UK, but the details remain vague.
Regarding other issues, the populists exploit public discontent but offer illogical solutions. Many Europeans are concerned about migration, fearing it will harm public services and change national cultures. Even their MPs, who form the second-largest group in parliament, are barred from holding deputy speaker positions. All of this helps explain why the so-called 'demonization strategy' has failed. It is true that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's party has seized institutions and exploited them, but he may be defeated soon, and this does not seem to mean the end of democracy.
Predicting disasters is futile, and as the strength of the populists in polls shows, a large number of European voters do not believe what they are being told. Meanwhile, the elites, aware of the shifts in power, are cozying up to the populists they used to avoid. Talking about mass deportations or using language intended to make migrants feel contempt is xenophobia. Most Europeans are not worried about geopolitics, but they should be. Participation can improve bad policy if the populists are willing to change it, and if not, it exposes their foolishness.
The most interesting populist project is the economy. When leaders of France's National Rally, the UK's Reform Party, and Germany's Alternative for Germany speak to businesses, they focus on national-level market liberalization. They say they want a smaller government and lower taxes and are looking to the power of technology. For the leaders running the three largest countries in Western Europe, things are getting worse: all are facing political stagnation and a decline in living standards in their countries, as well as a weakening of their global influence. In the UK and France, their populist right-wing rivals are poised to take power, while in Germany, the Alternative for Germany party could win elections in two states next year. The leaders of these three European countries have warned of a catastrophe if far-right populist parties win. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called his government the 'last chance for centrism'. After his coalition's defeat in last year's European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of the 'risk of civil war'. This month, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer told The Economist that the Reform Party poses a challenge to 'the essence of our identity as a nation'.
The European right-wing populists already have much to be condemned for, but talking about them in 'horrific' terms is doomed to fail. It would be wise to subject the incoming governments to the democratic scrutiny they deserve. The Labour government led by Starmer plans to impose record taxes even in the absence of rapid growth. In France, the law to raise the retirement age was scrapped. In Germany, Merz's reform plan has yielded nothing tangible. European politicians say they are defending tolerance and workers' rights, but when they describe a large portion of voters as bigots, they themselves are bigots. When they warn that populism will destroy their vision of what Europe should be, it only encourages voters who are desperately in need of change.
If 'demonization' doesn't work, what is the alternative? The answer begins with the desire for change that the right-wing populists have successfully exploited, with which The Economist agrees. The next step is to study whether the populists can pull Europe out of its political stagnation. For their own sake and for the sake of their countries, traditional politicians and their supporters urgently need a different approach. On the one hand, all these threats look like an attempt to divert attention from their failures. In the UK, after 14 years of stagnation under the Conservatives, the Labour government led by Starmer is spending more on social care and will impose record taxes, even in the absence of rapid growth. In France, Macron's law to raise the retirement age was scrapped, and his fifth prime minister in three years is trying to pass the budget through the National Assembly. In Germany, Merz's 'autumn of reforms' plan has yielded nothing noteworthy. If the fate of Europe is at stake, why don't its leaders make more of an effort?
On the other hand, their threats are not credible. Some right-wing populist governments are dangerous, while others are not. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni runs the country like any traditional politician. Members of the UK's Reform Party have been fairly ordinary so far. At a time when the United States is less willing to lead the collective defense of Europe, the populists echo the 'dangerous' belief of US President Donald Trump that the continent would be safer if it were less united and if every country pursued its national interests, and they also show a blind weakness towards Russia and China. There are 18 months left until the national elections in France, in Germany in March 2029, and in the UK in August 2029. A lot can change in that time. If traditional politicians spend that time smearing the populists, they will certainly feel better, but they won't help their countries. Jordan Bardella of France's National Rally has been secretly meeting with French business leaders. Also, Conservative politicians have defected from the Conservative Party in the UK to join the Reform Party, giving its leader, Nigel Farage, the legislative and ministerial experience he so desperately needs. Germany is the only country where the main parties rule out working with the Alternative for Germany. In addition, the populists' views are harsh.
